3+ is the figure you should keep in mind.
The main problem with laying horses is liability, although
we are lucky in some ways because unlike bookies we can concentrate on one
horse, where as they have to cover bets on every horse in the race, of course
the odds do reflect this but it must still hurt when they have to pay out on
some of the big priced winners.
Before reading on I suggest you read my article on
liability.
Up until now I have always agreed with the 1.7 - 2.7 (maybe
stretch this to 3) range of liabilities, but I am sure if you have done some
serious laying you will know that we get an awful lot of favourites that win
within this bracket.
While I was researching the new
Lay Betting System
I started to look at a lot of racing data and was surprised to find out that in
some instances over 60% of odds on favourites win (below 2) their races, that's
almost 2 in 3 but this drops to just under half at evens (2) to 15/8 (2.99),
but where it really makes a difference is 2/1(3) and 9/2(5.99) where these
favourites only win 1 in 5 races and 5/1(6) to 9/1(10) do even worse and only
win 1 race in 10.
This means that just by sticking with evens we improve our
chances, but if we go for 2/1 or above we are now into easy lay win territory!
Now I know the word "liability" is on your lips, but it
surely better to place a bet on a favourite that only has a 1 in 5 chance of
winning, than a race where the favourite has a better than 50% chance of
winning
If you don't believe me then have a look at David Turners
lay site, where he tends to bet on higher priced horses:
http://www.turnerslaytips.co.uk
Now compare this to
http://www.layingforprofituk.co.uk where many of the horses
have a far lower SP.
Sure David has his losers but nowhere near as many.
**By the way the two losers on the 20 Sept were actually
void because David says "if his pick isn't favourite but the Favourite is a NR
then the selection is void", which happened in both these cases, but David felt
it was only proper to keep the selections in.**
Now I am not suggesting that you go out and just bet on any
horse that is 2/1 and over, I am just trying to show you the difference it can
make to your winnings, especially if we add some more filters into the
selection process, which is exactly what I have done with the new
Lay Betting
System.
As I actually bet as well (more on this at a later date) I
know what it is like when you are laying a horse at 5/1, 8/1 or even 12/1, it
is almost impossible to do!
So the thing to do is set yourself a liability ceiling and
then go from there, as you get comfortable with that level and start to see how
your bank is growing and the winners that were slightly higher that you missed
out on, you can increase the liability you willing to accept.
Don't just rush into it, as always paper trade in all
instances first but I am pretty sure that after a while you will be convinced
that this is a very profitable way to lay horses
You can reprint this article as long as all links are kept
in place and the following is added directly underneath... Malcolm runs
two websites dedicated to horse racing systems,
http://www.laybetting.com and
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com,
he also sends out a FREE daily tips news letter that you can join by visiting
either of his sites. |
