**News this month**
Still
waiting to see if the government are going to start taxing us, but here is one
persons view.
http://www.onlinecasinonews.com/ocnv2_1/article/article.asp?id=5867
This article will show you why a lot of people are against betting
exchanges.
http://www.sundayherald.com/43314
It looks like the
Australians are going to get the go ahead for their own betting exchanges.
http://www.onlinecasinonews.com/ocnv2_1/article/article.asp?id=5727
**Interview**
Interview: Jon
http://www.Bismarx.com
As many of my readers know I
am a great fan of
The Bank Vault
report so I thought that it would be a great idea to ask Jon for an
interview.
Hi Jon
Q. Can you firstly tell us a
bit about your website?
A. The Bismarx website contains some
general information about laying horses using the Bismarx “Lay Ladder
system”.
We also have a free e-book and a sample Report for download
there, as well as an account of what I’ve called an “average
day” (if only there were such a thing!) trading Bismarx.
Q.
Could you please describe the sort of person who would be interested in you
tips?
A. Since we have moved to a private
syndicate base we have a total membership now of 50 players only at any one
time. We are looking for professional, full-time players with resources to
match. Some members have a background in stock market trading, and this creates
an ideal mind set for Bismarx.
I liken our activities to those of a
day-trader, there is risk involved, but also substantial gains to be
made.
Q. What different technologies do you use so punters can get
your tips?
A. E-mail; web updates and text messages via
mobile phone.
Q. What would you say is the biggest risk to people
using your tips?
A. Lack of discipline. Insufficient preparation
for liability (bank size). Chasing losses blindly without utilising Bismarx
core principles.
Q. What is your success rate?
A. Very good. Since inception some two years ago
we have had only two occasions when Bismarx selections have gone “through
the card” as winners. We call this “wipeout” and the chances are
estimated at 1/255.
That still gives us 244 winning days per run (an
unheard of strike rate) and we can prepare for crisis management using
stop-loss techniques.
Q. What would you say is the best advice you
can give to people using your tips?
A. Remain disciplined
and stick with the program. Do not deviate or speculate wildly.
Remember
that Bismarx has been tested and shown to work consistently. Remain
philosophical but focussed and be prepared to sit and wait sometimes, i.e.
remember the classic gambling maxim “tomorrow is another
day”.
Q. Your service did come under some criticism because of
a losing day, can you explain what happened?
A. We became
the victims of our own success.
Players were jumping in and wagering with
very high stakes (incidentally I regularly answer e-mail’s on the like
“should I increase my target to £100/£200” per race with
a resounding NO).
It makes me smile to see comments like “I made
£10,000 this year with Bismarx and lost £4000 in one day”.
That’s still a better return than the bank will give you, isn’t it?
I learned a lot about human nature, more really about herd mentality on
our “black Tuesday”.
People are always your friend when
you’re winning but they can turn bloody nasty when they lose.
However, I can say that the Bismarx operation is a much tighter ship as a
result of this.
People need protecting not necessarily from tips which go
awry, but from their own folly.
Q. We all know about the
Bank Vault report but can you tell us if you have any other
sites or products?
A. We currently have three e-books
including
The Midas Maiden Method and Stupidly Simple Systems. We also
provide daily selections on premium rate phone lines.
Q.
What do you feel the future for lay betting is?
A. Quite
simply lay betting has revolutionised betting for the average punter. I have
some concerns should the Government introduce sanctions or taxes though of
course the cynic in me would not be surprised should this happen.
Q. Are then any sites you (apart from yours) you feel my readers would
benefit from hearing about?
A. Well of course I’d have
to mention our sister site www.2bets4u.co.uk .
Perhaps two obvious ones,
but ones we use every day:
www.thesportinglife.com and
www.racingpost.co.uk
Q. Finally…What are your
feelings on the web based tipster’s community?
A. It
reflects The Internet in general: some good, much bad.
Always question the
source of the information you receive and don’t believe either the hype or
the cristism of rival services.
I’ve experienced a lot of sniping and
sabotage from rivals but I’m not going to get paranoid about it,
that’s just the way it goes.
It’s Murphy’s Law, or Sods Law
(or a law the name of which you can’t print here!) but what goes around
comes around.
There’s only one lesson in all of this and that’s
to keep on keeping on. The best tipster’s are the ones who survive the
longest.
Long may Bismarx thrive!
Thanks Jon.
**My experience this month**
One of the
biggest problems with laying horses is your libility and is the reason that
many of back horses that are below (3.0) 2/1, so that if we do lose then we are
not going to have to pay out to much.
It also means that if we are
using some kind of staking plan then we will not have so much to make
up.
Over the last couple of months I have been working with David
Turner on a lay system, my biggest headache has been explaining to him that
your liability will be the first thing people ask about and that we need to
keep it as "low as possible".
David has argued this point by saying
that "it is losers that we want and on a consistent basis and to get them you
will probably have to risk a bit more"!
Anyway it got me thinking that
maybe he has a point.
First of all pop over to David's site and see the
results for the last 6 months of this lay system.
http://laybetting.mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk
One
thing that interesting to note that out of about 4 loses 2 were close to odds
on the other was 3/1 and a 9/2.
David has taken a different route to
most systems (including) my own and looks at the least likely to win the race
in the top 3, now of course this means that your liability is bound to be
higher, but as it is losers that we are after maybe it is the best way to look
at it.
But there is another point to consider here and that is that
most systems look to maidens, beginners and Novice races to find a likely race
to lay but at the moment favourites in maidens are winning 64% of the time, but
at what price.
Well I can give you a good idea from my own research
that many of these are coming from the 3.0(2/1) and below mark, which makes
sense really because a favourite at that kind of sp should have a good chance
of winning.
But what happens if you raise your liability?
Well
my initial research (although limited) is very encouraging, but before you go
off and start betting on a 7/1 outsider, you still have to put some limit on
your liability otherwise you could be broke in no time!
At the moment I
am looking at races that are selected by my
Lay Betting
System but are in the range of 3.5 - 5, although it still needs a lot of
guts to lay a horse at 4/1.
I will report further on this next month,
but do some paper trading yourself and see what you come up with.
**Other Stuff**
You may be interest in this post from apak24 in
my forum, it was actually in the password protected part that is reserved for
owners of my "lay Betting system" but I thought that it would be good to share
with you.
have been checking the statistics for favourites and have
come to the conclusion using the stats that there are only a few races that are
best to lay the favourites to lose, the list of these races are below.
All
the races listed have a below 30% strike rate, some as low as 9%
Remember
these stats are taken over a period of 10 Years 20-May-94 to 17-May-04
All Classes Sprints: 3yo Sel Stks & 4yo+ Clm Stks
Group Class Middle
Distance: 4yo+ Opn Stks
Class A-C Sprints: 3yo+ Opn Stks & 4yo+
Handicaps
Class A-C Middle Distance: 2yo Handicaps
Class A-C Long
Distance: 3yo Opn Stks
Class D-E Sprints: 3yo Cls Stks
Class D-E Long
Distance: 3yo+ Opn Stks
Class F-G Sprints: 2yo Handicaps, 3yo Handicaps
& 3yo Cls Stks
Class F-G Middle Distance: 3yo+ Opn Stks
Class F-G
Long Distance: 3yo Handicaps, 3yo+ Opn Stks & 3yo+ Cls Stks
Class H
Sprints: 2yo Handicaps, 3yo Handicaps, 3yo+ Cls Stks & 3yo Sel Stks
And the best race to back favourites to win is as follows.
Class F-G
Middle Distance: 4yo+ Clm Stks, these type of races have a strike rate of over
43%
Till next time.
Malcolm
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You can reprint this news letter as long as all links are
kept in place and the following is added directly underneath... Malcolm
runs two websites dedicated to horse racing systems,
http://www.laybetting.com and
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com,
he also sends out a FREE daily tips news letter that you can join by visiting
either of his sites.
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